Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 12.354826 13.896264 15.638962 17.772702 20.339112 23.358157 27.226300
2025-05-11 10.530097 12.519431 14.958383 18.230107 22.603425 28.401926 36.955360
2025-05-18 9.222016 11.344512 14.082485 17.981536 23.585174 31.688868 45.026637
2025-05-25 8.297124 10.474967 13.396805 17.760186 24.416752 34.788868 53.648480
2025-06-01 7.631786 9.846222 12.917467 17.696832 25.387049 38.228200 63.965533
2025-06-08 6.980880 9.156704 12.252597 17.228849 25.587252 40.372331 72.640586
2025-06-15 6.551813 8.733862 11.917816 17.204388 26.483703 43.929155 85.774056
2025-06-22 6.007776 8.093926 11.189016 16.441008 25.941124 44.582107 92.497815
2025-06-29 5.518263 7.497707 10.474034 15.614542 25.146435 44.534935 97.465536
2025-07-06 5.148757 7.056433 9.964464 15.079761 24.814870 45.393454 105.440578
2025-07-13 5.267037 7.365693 10.669729 16.741506 29.056327 57.753565 157.991288
2025-07-20 5.152999 7.300586 10.753372 17.285388 31.121482 65.681019 204.424199
2025-07-27 4.830195 6.892239 10.246085 16.694551 30.694660 67.110956 226.477998
2025-08-03 4.702721 6.792512 10.259648 17.116077 32.664673 76.204620 301.503475
2025-08-10 4.485566 6.530072 9.966186 16.888349 33.051829 80.687627 360.090386
2025-08-17 4.291329 6.293731 9.700409 16.685633 33.464627 85.490779 434.092713
2025-08-24 4.133846 6.109738 9.514545 16.627593 34.240600 91.999087 545.373053
2025-08-31 3.938212 5.850018 9.172115 16.198638 33.955049 94.465607 628.169463
2025-09-07 3.810748 5.700736 9.023776 16.176207 34.785497 101.883651 813.824403
2025-09-14 3.605841 5.407397 8.587928 15.475585 33.581471 100.204982 859.189880
2025-09-21 3.405895 5.115152 8.140254 14.715816 32.110794 96.928091 869.545420
2025-09-28 3.250791 4.895800 7.820799 14.223482 31.364151 96.781269 949.326096
2025-10-05 3.344043 5.117869 8.358619 15.751510 37.014621 131.356463 2551.528411